Thiago Caetano

Yo, I'm Thiago.

I'm from Rio de Janeiro. San Diego has had me since I was 13.

I fell for math as a kid because I loved solving problems, and I still do. It took me to economics and mathematics at USC, then to AI and jiu-jitsu, which turned out to be the same thing in different clothes.

Today I solve problems at Axos Bank, building AI tools for the commercial bank. Tomorrow, hopefully, the next hard one.

What I build

Each project sits where two or three of the things I love cross: soccer, jiu-jitsu, lifting, nutrition, AI and data. I take the question, build the thing that answers it, and use it.

Supplement Signals

Building

The question. People keep asking which supplements I take. Could I answer once, with the studies behind it?

IntSoccerPredictor

Active

The question. How well could a simple, transparent model have called the 2026 World Cup?

Split Decision

Idea

The question. Could I call UFC fights with the one family of models my studies skipped?

Tatame

Building

The question. How do you program strength work around mat time, and track both?

My life, in snippets

  • First gold

    USA Grappling tournament, when I was a white belt.

  • La Jolla, California

    Kayaking with friends.

  • Getaway moment

    Painting outdoors is one of my favorite ways to pass time, calm down, and just be present in the moment. One of the hobbies I've picked up recently.

  • Mammoth Mountain

    This is the summit. I took this on my third day ever snowboarding and ended up falling 1,000 feet down the mountain. Thankfully, no injuries.

  • My best friend

    This is Skye. She's my partner for runs on the beach and long walks.

  • 2026 World Cup

    Brazil watch party for the World Cup opening match.

  • Maui, Hawaii

    Made a new friend while snorkeling.

  • Los Angeles, California

    Graduation at USC. Four years, one night.

  • Joshua Tree, California

    Stargazing for hours, watching a meteor shower.

  • Sunny San Diego

    Tossing and catching some rays.

  • Catalina Island

    Flying a four-person plane to Catalina with a friend who's an instructor.

  • Twin Falls

    One of the most famous hikes and places in Maui, Hawaii.

  • ADCC

    My first well-known jiu-jitsu competition. Lost in the semifinals and tore my ankle.

  • New York City

    In the middle of Times Square.

  • Desert sunset

    Cold plunge at last light.

  • Carlsbad, California

    Seasonal strawberry picking.

  • Salt Lake City, Utah

    Quick break on the slopes.

  • Molokini Crater

    Took a boat to snorkel around a submerged volcano.

  • Sunset Cliffs DJ set

    My friend performed a pop-up DJ set.

  • Christmas with my cousins

    My two little cousins opening their Christmas presents.

What I'm about

What I do

Most of my work is solving problems for someone who wishes they didn't have them. I start by breaking the big, scary, ambiguous thing into a bunch of small components. Then I pressure-test my assumptions with the people who actually live with the problem. I plan the steps in detail, sometimes more than necessary, then execute from the plan and fold changes back into it. My ideas land in a handwritten journal or a messy notes app, because I've learned that creativity shows up when you least expect it. Execution means building the thing that removes the problem: sometimes a model, sometimes an AI agent, sometimes a whole new way of running a process.

Right now the problems are a bank's. I work on its internal consulting team, in AI strategy and solutions. The problems I solve outside work are on this site. They follow the same habits, pointed at my own questions and curiosities.

What I'm looking for

Growth, mostly. I want problems worth solving, in things I actually care about, and people worth solving them with. I want work I can own end to end: sitting with the people who have the problem, building the thing, and watching what they do with it. And I want to be slightly out of my depth, because that's where the growth is: a problem I haven't solved before, a room where I'm the least experienced person, a skill I'm still bad at. I look for that on purpose, at work and off it. I've found a good amount of it where I am, and I'll keep chasing it wherever it shows up. If you're working on something like that, I'd love to hear about it.

In my free time

I split it into five pillars.

Physical. Jiu-jitsu, lifting, and runs on the beach with Skye. I just started surfing, and I'm looking at a speargun so I can try spearfishing.

Mental. Reading, painting and long walks. A healthy body and a healthy mind are two sides of the same coin: your thoughts change how you feel, and how you feel changes what you do. So I keep a few hobbies whose only job is to clear my head.

Spiritual. Journaling and meditation. Writing my thoughts out is how I get to know myself. Meditating is how I clear my mind and feel part of where I am.

Community. We evolved in packs, then villages, then cities. We're not solitary animals, so a lot of my time goes to people: the beach with friends, movies with my family, dinners, dates, and the crew from jiu-jitsu.

Learning. Curiosity is what got humans this far, so I feed mine. Mostly that's research papers on health: sunlight and circadian rhythm, sauna and ice baths, sleep, nutrition built on whole foods, and the supplements that help me recover. And I keep picking up new things, surfing and painting lately, because trying something new is how you end up better than you were yesterday.

Things I value

  • Feeding the innate curiosity that drives me
  • Taking proper care of my mind, body, and soul
  • Humility
  • Being grateful for the little things, because we take a lot for granted
  • Doing hard things, even when I don't feel like it
  • Seeing the cup half full
  • Learning to navigate being uncomfortable
  • Meeting new people
  • Seeking growth and new experiences by learning new things
  • Going to new places and experiencing different cultures
  • Talking to people who have different opinions and views from mine
  • Respect is given, not earned, and easily lost
  • Helping others
  • Finding purpose in everything I do
  • Being present in the moment

Stuff I like